Experts contacted by New Scientist agree, saying a catastrophic failure is unlikely. “It’s a statistical fact that most dam failures occur on first filling. But the Chinese are very competent engineers, so I would not be overly concerned,” says Richard Cox, a dam supervising engineer for the UK Environment Agency.
However, the stakes are high. If the dam did collapse, the floodwaters would cause immense damage along the densely populated Yangtze valley. The reservoir already holds a vast amount of water, being 560 kilometres long and up to 135 metres deep. Pan said that the dam would face its first real test as the annual summer floods sweep down the Yangtze river.
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